Chennai : The Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA), the opposition grouping that is taking on the BJP led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), is on a strong footing in Tamil Nadu.
The Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) led alliance with the Congress, Indian Union Muslim League, Communist parties CPI-M and CPI, Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK) and other political parties has an edge in Tamil Nadu and this will be reflected in the cohesion in the INDIA front of the opposition.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the DMK led front including the Congress won 38 out of the 39 seats in Tamil Nadu. The front has since come to power in the state in 2021 and with several pro people progammes including ,’Makkale Thedi Maruthavum’ (Health at doorstep), ‘Nan Muthalvan’ ( Skill outreach ), the government led by Chief Minister M.K. Stalin has won favour among the people of the state. The breakfast scheme for school students inaugurated by Stalin in Madurai has become a major hit and has now spread to all the districts of the state.
The principal opposition party, the AIADMK has split with its senior most leader and former chief minister, O. Panneerselvam (OPS) being expelled from the party. The AIADMK is now in the control of another former chief minister, Edappadi K. Palaniswami (EPS) and has clearly announced that there would not be any truce with OPS and his close associates.
The former aide of Jayalalithaa, V.K. Sasikala is out of the party and so is her nephew ,TTV Dhinakaran who has floated his own political outfit, Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam.
Interestingly, OPS, V.K. Sasikala and TTV Dhinakaran are all from the powerful Thevar community of South Tamil Nadu and the estrangement of these leaders would definitely lead to the community voting against the AIADMK. While the trio has not had any formal arrangement with the DMK till now, the possibility of the community backlash against the AIADMK is looming large.
Palaniswami is from the powerful Gounder community of Western Tamil Nadu but the community has a miniscule presence in South Tamil Nadu and this would also be another factor why the AIADMK will perform poorly in the districts of Tirunelveli, Kanniyakumari, Theni, Madurai, Sivagangai, Ramanathapuram, Karur, Thoothukudi and the Nilgiris.
Even though the BJP is trying to make a mark in the state’s politics with its state president, K. Annamalai, an IPS officer turned politician, taking on the DMK and Stalin making corruption allegations, the party has still not got a connect with the people of the state.
The alliance of the AIADMK with the BJP can hence backfire for the former as the people here have a strong Dravidian ideology and have still not accepted the politics of Hindutva and Sanatana Dharma practiced by the BJP, even though the party has four MLAs in the state assembly.
The INDIA alliance has a strong presence in the state with the DMK, Congress, CPI-M, CPI, VCK and the IUML accounting for various sections of the people. The Dalits, which are a major factor in Tamil Nadu, are represented by the VCK and the party is strongly with the DMK.
The Muslim community, which has a formidable strength in Tamil Nadu, is represented by the moderate Indian Union Muslim League which unlike the Popular Front and other rabble rousing Islmaists is a time tested political party without any aggressive postures. With the Muslim League and the VCK representing two of the major voting populace and with the innate strength of the Congress and the DMK, the INDIA front is comfortably placed in Tamil Nadu.
Stalin, after Karunanidhi, MGR and Jayalalithaa is slowly emerging as an icon in Tamil Nadu politics which cannot be claimed by his predecessors from the AIADMK, Panneerselvam and Palaniswami. This image of Stalin is acting as a gelling factor for the INDIA front and he is the rallying point for the opposition front in the state.
Stalin as Chief Minister has communicated with the Tamil diaspora and has also brought investments from his two foreign trips. The Tamil Nadu government is also conducting a Global Investment Meet on January 7 and 8 in 2024 just months before the Lok Sabha elections. The state is expecting participation from 100 countries and good investments. The INDIA front will be highlighting this during the run-up to the 2024 general elections.
In Tamil Nadu, the INDIA front is strong and the NDA at present does not look to be a match for it given the split in the AIADMK and the largely secular voting by the Tamil populace.
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