Bhopal : As Madhya Pradesh has already undergone a change in political leadership after the conclusion of the high-voltage Assembly elections, the year 2024 will be crucial in the context of assessing the performance of the new leadership in both the BJP and Congress camps.
The ruling BJP has replaced its most popular leader Shivraj Singh Chouhan — after being at the helm of the state for over 16 years – with a new Chief Minister, Mohan Yadav, who is relatively less popular in the state’s politics.
The Opposition Congress, too, has replaced its old leadership in the state and brought in young Jitu Patwari, as state President after removing the previous chief Kamal Nath.
Even though 59-year-old Mohan Yadav will have enough time to prove his leadership for the next five years and will continue to enjoy the backing of the BJP’s central leadership, yet, every decision that he takes for the governance of the state, would be compared with that of his predecessor Shivraj Singh Chouhan.
Meanwhile, in the Congress camp it would be the same situation for 58-year-old Patwari who is a two-time MLA and former Minister. After replacing veteran leader and former Chief Minister Kamal Nath as state unit President, Patwari will have to ace all the challenges he faces in the state to justify the Congress leadership’s decision.
Being the head of the Opposition party, his challenge lies in rebuilding the organisation after the Congress’ massive defeat in the Assembly elections and in keeping the party’s cadre together and motivated for the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections.
Apart from this, Patwari’s main test would be to keep the Congress’ vote share intact in Madhya Pradesh and the 2024 Lok Sabha election would be a real test of his leadership.
In the just-concluded Assembly election, the BJP won 163 seats and garnered a 48.55 per cent vote share. The Congress’ vote share remained almost the same at 40.40 per cent as against 40.89 per cent in 2018, even as its tally plunged from 114 to 66 seats.
In the last four elections in Madhya Pradesh (2003, 2008, 2013 and 2018), the Congress’ vote share has been increasing, from 32 per cent in 2003, 32 per cent in 2008, 36 per cent in 2013 and 40.89 per cent in 2018. The BJP’s vote share in the state has been 44.88 per cent (2003), 38 per cent (2008), 45 per cent (2013) and 41 per cent (2018).
In the 2023 Assembly election, the BJP won 101 seats with more than 50 per cent vote share and on nearly 50 seats it secured 40 per cent to 50 per cent vote share. Overall, a gain of more than seven per cent cemented the saffron party’s win in Madhya Pradesh, which is called the laboratory of its parent organization, the RSS.
Significantly, in the last two Lok Sabha elections – 2014 and 2019 – the BJP has been much ahead of the Congress in terms of seats and vote share in Madhya Pradesh. In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections the BJP had won 26 out of 28 seats with more than 54 per cent vote share. In 2019 it won 28 out of 29 seats, with 58 per cent vote share against the Congress’ one with 34.5 per cent vote share.
After chairing a series of meetings with organisational leaders, Patwari himself has stated that it is a challenging time for the Congress in Madhya Pradesh and he has signaled that he would strengthen the party through the five mantras of Sangharsh (struggle), Samvad (dialogue), Sankalp (resolution), Samanvay (coordination) and Sakriyata (activism). How he will fare in his endeavours, only time will tell.
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